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Abstract Forests sequester a substantial portion of anthropogenic carbon emissions. Many open questions concern how. We address two of these questions. Has leaf and fine litter production changed? And what is the contribution of old‐growth forests? We address these questions with long‐term records (≥10 years) of total, reproductive, and especially foliar fine litter production from 32 old‐growth forests. We expect increases in forest productivity associated with rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and, in cold climates, with rising temperatures. We evaluate the statistical power of our analysis using simulations of known temporal trends parameterized with sample sizes (in number of years) and levels of interannual variation observed for each record. Statistical power is inadequate to detect biologically plausible trends for records lasting less than 20 years. Modest interannual variation characterizes fine litter production, and more variable phenomena will require even longer records to evaluate global change responses with sufficient statistical power. Just four old‐growth forests have records of fine litter production lasting longer than 20 years, and these four provide no evidence for increases. Three of the four forests are in central Panama, also have long‐term records of wood production, and both components of aboveground production are unchanged over 21–38 years. The possibility that recent increases in forest productivity are limited for old‐growth forests deserves more attention. 

We present highlights derived from 36 years of weekly observations of flower and seed production and 25 years of annual observations of seedling dynamics at Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama. Highlights concern levels and causes of spatial, temporal, and interspecific variation in flower production, seed production, seed dispersal, and seedling recruitment, growth, and survival as well as the consequences for plant regeneration and diversity. Full tree life cycles are assembled by combining seed production, seedling dynamics, and observations of larger plants from the 50-ha Forest Dynamics Plot and are used to evaluate the costs of dioecy, lifetime insights from functional traits, and interspecific variation in the impact of lianas among host tree species. A variety of results demonstrate the importance of long-term observations to understand forest dynamics and responses to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and a changing climate. 

Forests sequester a substantial portion of anthropogenic carbon emissions. Many open questions concern how. We address two of these questions (Wright and Calderón 2025). Has leaf and fine litter production changed? And what is the contribution of old-growth forests? We address these questions with long-term records (≥10 years) of total, reproductive, and especially foliar fine litter production from 32 old-growth forests. We expect increases in forest productivity associated with rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and, in cold climates, with rising temperatures. We evaluate the statistical power of our analysis using simulations of known temporal trends parameterized with sample sizes (number of years) and levels of interannual variation observed for each record. Statistical power is inadequate to detect biologically plausible trends for records lasting less than 20 years. Just four old-growth forests have records of fine litter production lasting longer than 20 years, and these four provide no evidence for increases. Three of the four forests are in central Panama, also have long-term records of wood production, and both components of aboveground production are unchanged over 21 to 38 years. The possibility that recent increases in forest productivity are limited for old-growth forests deserves more attention. Modest interannual variation characterizes fine litter production, and more variable phenomena will require even longer records to evaluate global change responses with sufficient statistical power. The data files and R scripts in this data package recreate the analyses of Wright and Calderón (2025). References Wright, S. J. and O. Calderón. 2025. Statistical power and the detection of global change responses: The case of leaf production in old-growth forests. Ecology (accepted 28 October 2024; manuscript ECY23-1254.R1) 

Pre-dispersal seed mortality caused by premature fruit drop is a potentially important source of plant mortality, but one which has rarely been studied in the context of tropical forest plants. Of particular interest is premature fruit drop triggered by enemies, which – if density-dependent – could contribute to species co-existence in tropical forest plant communities.  We used a long-term (31 year) dataset on seed and fruit fall obtained through weekly collections from a network of seed traps in a lowland tropical forest (Barro Colorado Island, Panama) to estimate the proportion of seeds prematurely abscised for 201 woody plant species. To determine whether enemy attack might contribute to premature fruit drop we tested whether plant species abscise more of their fruit prematurely if they: (1) have attributes hypothesised to be associated with high levels of enemy attack, and (2) are known to be attacked by one enemy-group (insect seed predators). We also tested (3) whether mean rates of premature fruit drop for plant species are phylogenetically conserved. Overall rates of premature fruit drop were high in the plant community. Across all species, 39% of seeds were abscised before completing their development. Rates of premature seed abscission varied considerably among species and could not be explained by phylogeny. Premature seed abscission rates were higher in species which are known to host pre-dispersal insect seed predators and species with attributes that were hypothesised to make them more susceptible to attack by pre-dispersal enemies, namely species which (1) have larger seeds, (2) have a greater average height, (3) have temporally predictable fruiting patterns, and (4) are more abundant at the study site. Synthesis. Premature fruit drop is likely to be a major source of seed mortality for many plant species on Barro Colorado Island. It is plausible that pre-dispersal seed enemies, such as insect seed predators, contribute to community-level patterns of premature fruit drop and have the potential to mediate species co-existence through stabilising negative density dependence. Our study suggests that the role of pre-dispersal enemies in structuring tropical plant communities should be considered alongside the more commonly studied post-dispersal seed and seedling enemies.